A Historical Year for Iran - Editorial

2010 is a year in which discussions on Iran’s nuclear program getting more and more complicated. Uranium enrichment operation is nearly reaching towards 20%. If uranium enrichment program reaches to 20% limit then there is no way of controlling Iran. This kind of a situation is not a threat only for US also it would be a actual threat for both Russia and China. Iran’s declarations are predicting new weapon development. Nuclear program is getting away from being an amicable program. Approach of Tehran Government is getting closer to a point at which Iran would abandon the UN and IAEA agreements. This approach will start a dangerous conflict around the nuclear program of Iran. If Iran becomes a side at this conflict, Israel may react before US. Israel’s reaction will be a repressive hit which will aim to hit Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Iran’s response would be a widespread counter-attack and its dimensions cannot be presumed. Furthermore this counter-attack may be started from Afghanistan, Iraq, Basra Gulf and Lebanon in mean time. According to these issues this year will be a historical year for Iran. Decision for a solution or decision for a war will be finalized in this year.

Besides the progress of nuclear program, missile trials of Iran show that Iran had developed its ballistic ability too. It is so hard to support Iran, for countries such Russia and China. Moscow and Beijing state the need for more US pressure on Iran. Common idea is US contends with light precautions. Tehran government is gaining time for uranium enrichment program with the help of this US behavior. Moscow and Beijing are anxious about the possibility of a war which will be a result of this progress because Iran is an important partner for both Russia and China.

5+1 countries trying to calm down the atmosphere in which US and Israel still hide the option of military intervention solution. Time is running out. Diplomatic solution pursuits are on an end and more adamant sanctions are on the way. If sanctions would not work, there is still an option of a military intervention. US officials have this approach while explaining Obama government’s standpoint on Iran. Truth is that US president is getting under more pressure on developing negotiations day by day.

US requested Iran a negotiation which will guarantee Iran’s nuclear energy program in a amicable use. Obama was stating that Washington is not working on military solutions but Obama warned Iran a few months ago:

“No doubt that we have a limited patience, Iran should put an effort for transparency and Iran should prove that she uses amicable nuclear energy”

New Position of 5+1

Concrete steps were expected from Tehran government until the end of 2009. Obama also underlines the acceptable request which was formed by five constant member of UN Security Council and Germany is still on the table. Request contains an article which allows Iran to make uranium enrichment out of its borders, in countries like Russia, Turkey or France. Iran is not accepting this request which is expected the stop the studies of an atomic bomb developed by Iran.

Accepting this request would eliminate the military intervention option process option in which Russia and China would be hardly convinced on. The reason for Israel’s intervention to Iran will be eliminated by this request too. US clash with Russia and China about sanctions on Iraq would be prevented for now. While working on two important issues like Iraq and Afghanistan, US would have the option of resolving the Iran issue in the easiest way. Also disinclination of western countries (like France and Germany) to agree on adamant sanctions would be solved too.

Iran’s refusal of the 5+1’s request for solution had a strong influence on US prediction of Iran’s nuclear weapon program. Contemporary developments increased the military intervention possibility on Iran. Probably, Russia and China will be convinced on this issue too. Israel would put a stronger pressure on US for military intervention with the respect of its rightness about the Iran policies. Also UN would take part on this issue and Iran would be left alone in the International survey.

US Department of Defense Secretary Robert Gates states their worry with these words:

“I am worried that we are running out of time for resolving the nuclear problem with Iran in diplomatic ways”

Gates is so much certain about Iran’s nuclear weapon development program personally: Ahmedinejad government has the thought of developing nuclear weapons but we are not sure that if they have started or not.

Super Bomb

While this period, US Defense Department transpired the information that they are developed a weapon called super bomb for hitting targets for both hitting the targets on the ground and for hitting the targets at underground.

This giant bomb which weights 14 thousand kilograms is called as “Massive Ordnance Penetrator“ Gates who states that a military attack is not in their agenda repeatedly, warns Tehran for nuclear armament would weaken the Iran so much. In this sense, development of the super bomb is an instrument for US warning to Iran.

On the other hand, nobody in Washington believe that China would participate the possible sanctions on Iran. Russia is ready to support the sanctions in the condition of cooperating with UN. Questions about Israel’s approach and time period for a diplomatic solution stand still.

It seems that Iran is not willing to get less enriched uranium out of the country. Iran is working on alternative solutions. Proposal which suggests the idea of buying nuclear fuel directly for medical usage, should be evaluated carefully.

Options

Iran is not opposing IAEA’s argument clearly but Iran worries about the issue of possibility of exchanged uranium would not given back to Tehran. Iran officials state the idea of 20% enriched uranium’s direct buying is more reasonable. Iran’s request which aims at showing their good will and gaining Iran Peoples’ respect by the negotiation countries is not welcomed by western countries and interpreted as a negative behavior. According to the western perspective this offer of Iran is contradicts with the nature of negotiations. Main aim is to use the nuclear material owned by Iran for only amicable purposes. If this aim has a success then Iran cannot enrich its nuclear material for developing nuclear weapons. If Iran keeps less enriched uranium in its borders while buying needed fuel for using medical purposes then Iran will have the uranium for continuing its nuclear program. So nuclear program of Iran cannot be controlled. Result which was reached through negotiations which was started by France and Russia in Wien will have no affect to stop Iran’s nuclear problem.